Experts say that under Kamala Harris, new cryptocurrency ETFs are unlikely to include assets beyond Bitcoin and Ether.

More crypto ETFs, including current applications for an XRP or Solana ETF, might not ever be approved if Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump in the presidential election, two ETF experts said. 

Several potential issuers have applied to launch exchange-traded funds that track smaller coins like Ripple's XRP or Solana (SOL). Still, the fate of those applications may depend on American voters.

 Experts in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) assert that under a potential Kamala Harris presidency, the likelihood of approving crypto ETFs that go beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum's ether (ETH) remains bleak. Currently, there are pending applications for ETFs designed to track cryptocurrencies such as Ripple's XRP and Solana (SOL). However, analysts believe that if Donald Trump secures victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, these applications could significantly enhance their chances for approval.

This situation has unfolded against the backdrop of a monumental shift in the cryptocurrency landscape. Earlier this year, the approval of spot Bitcoin and ether ETFs was celebrated as a monumental milestone for the industry, marking the culmination of years of effort by various issuers. Notably, the firm Grayscale took a bold step by suing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to counter the regulator's prior rejections, ultimately achieving victory. As a result, billions of dollars have been funneled into these newly launched ETFs, creating a ripple effect of interest within the investment community.

Encouraged by the initial successes, various firms are now actively pursuing approvals for new ETFs aimed at tracking a wider array of cryptocurrencies. Among these hopefuls are funds focused on Ripple's XRP and the native token of the Solana blockchain, SOL. However, industry insights suggest that these ambitions may falter should Harris win the presidency. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, bluntly stated, "It won't happen if Harris wins, regardless of the issuer."

The entry of major asset management players like BlackRock into the ETF sphere was once perceived to have bolstered the chances of obtaining SEC approvals. Yet, the extent of BlackRock's influence remains uncertain. In contrast, analysts foresee a "decent chance" for increased approvals of crypto ETFs if Trump reclaims the presidency, regardless of whether firms such as Bitwise and VanEck, which are also vying for approval, gain backing from large asset managers like BlackRock.

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, aligns with this perspective, stating, "It seems highly unlikely that a Harris administration would approve additional spot crypto ETFs, at least not anytime soon after the election." He points to the Biden administration's current "combative" stance on cryptocurrency—characterized by significant regulatory scrutiny—and suggests that Harris, as a prominent member of that administration, would likely continue this trend.

As political dynamics unfold, Trump’s odds of winning the election have surged to 62.4%, according to the leading prediction market, Polymarket, marking the highest probability in months. In recent times, Trump has garnered increasing support from the cryptocurrency community, actively engaging with the sector by participating in well-known Bitcoin conferences, endorsing decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, and even visiting a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York, reinforcing his commitment to the crypto narrative within his campaign.

In contrast, Vice President Harris has been relatively muted in her engagement with the cryptocurrency sector. While she recently announced plans for establishing a regulatory framework aimed at digital assets—targeting specific demographics, such as Black men, who are statistically more likely to own cryptocurrency—details regarding her approach to foster the industry remain sparse and lack clarity.