Israel and Iran look like they might be on the edge of a bigger conflict. So what’s keeping them from going all out?

People stand near the remains of a missile near the Dead Sea, in Israel, in October. 

It has been nearly a month since Israel deployed a substantial airstrike campaign, involving more than 100 fighter jets and drones, targeting various Iranian military installations. This military response has left the international community on edge, eagerly awaiting Iran's reaction to these provocative actions.

This year has seen a notable period of anticipation in the tense and volatile relationship between these two Middle Eastern nations. The escalation began when Iran launched a significant offensive, firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israeli targets on October 1. 

Although many of these missiles were intercepted and neutralized, this aggressive act was clearly aimed at avenging the recent assassinations of two prominent leaders from Hezbollah and Hamas, both allied with Iran.

The recent exchange of hostilities first escalated in April, when Iran retaliated against an Israeli attack on one of its diplomatic facilities. In response to this perceived aggression, Iran launched a barrage of at least 300 missiles and drones directly at Israeli locations. Interestingly, despite the scale of this assault, Israel chose to wait several days before retaliating, demonstrating a strategic restraint that has characterized this conflict.

Historically, military analysts would have expected that any direct offensive against Israel by Iran, or vice versa, would trigger an immediate and widespread military confrontation. However, the current situation has unfolded differently, with both sides exhibiting a cautious approach to escalation, which has left many observers questioning the underlying dynamics at play in this ongoing conflict.