The Trudeau government recently released its annual immigration report, signaling a surprising shift from its previous stance on immigration as a key economic driver for Canada. The report proposes a temporary reduction in “permanent resident” admissions, which has received significant media attention. However, the larger issue affecting the immigration system is the post-pandemic increase in “temporary resident” numbers.
Traditionally, “immigrants” refers to permanent residents. Now, the current government seems to include temporary residents, who may not be able to stay long-term. The government's earlier commitment to a large amnesty program for migrants living unlawfully in Canada appears to have been dropped. The overall reduction targets raise questions about whether this change in approach is realistic.
Public trust in Canada's immigration system depends on two main challenges: selecting the right candidates and handling uncontrolled migration. Economists are debating which candidate categories the government should prioritize. At the same time, relaxed controls have led to more visa overstayers and asylum seekers.
Discussions on candidate selection should consider various interests and the influence of lobby groups. Initial reactions to the latest report suggest disappointment among business communities that rely on cheap foreign labor. However, some economists argue that cuts will help Canada select more skilled immigrants and boost productivity. Different governments emphasize various priorities in immigration reports, but the current government seems to be losing control over the situation.
Record numbers of temporary workers and international students have helped Canada’s post-pandemic recovery. However, an uncontrolled influx of low-skill migrants in low-wage jobs has also lowered GDP per capita. Measuring the impact of proposed reductions is complicated, as it depends on factors like living costs, housing, labor shortages, and public services. Still, the announced changes could weaken the distinct feature of Canada’s immigration system that has contributed to its success: careful selection of skilled immigrants who can help the economy.
Annex 4 of the report shows that over 40 percent of permanent admissions will come from temporary residents already in Canada. This means that 158,000 out of 395,000 permanent residents chosen in 2025 will be temporary residents. Additionally, 82,980 of the 197,650 permanent residents from the economic class will come from the In-Canada Focus category, representing nearly 42 percent. This approach leaves only 114,670, or 29 percent, of the 395,000 permanent admissions available for overseas economic candidates.
The In-Canada Focus will achieve two main outcomes. It will help reduce the number of temporary residents by allowing them to transition to permanent status. However, this will also result in fewer spaces for other categories, particularly those selected through the globally recognized points system and Provincial Nominee Programs.
The report also indicates a shift in priorities that seems contradictory to the goal of reducing immigration numbers. Ottawa plans to reserve more permanent slots for francophone candidates to settle outside Quebec. The urgency of planned reductions conflicts with a social initiative aimed at promoting bilingualism across the country.
A positive step is the immigration minister’s decision to include temporary residents in the annual report. This practice should become a legal requirement. If this law were in place, it might have helped avoid the issues stemming from the recent surge in temporary residents.
The law should also require reporting data on asylum seekers. While the government cannot predict future asylum claims, the numbers have risen significantly in recent years. Canada is expected to receive around 180,000 asylum seekers in 2024. This information should be part of the report along with data on the countries of origin. A legal requirement for this information would make it harder for the government to overlook these important details.
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